Previously:

• Week 1 Game Scripts
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5
• Week 6
• Week 7
• Week 8

I noted that week 9 was the single best passing week in NFL history in terms of passing quality. Well, there were four extremely pass-happy teams in week 9, too. The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes are no strangers to being pass-happy and breaking all the rules, but let’s take a moment and recognize how much the game has changed.

During the first 40 years of the Super Bowl era, only one time did a team pass on 81% of their plays (or more) and win the game: a record-breaking 70-pass attempt game by Drew Bledsoe back in 1994. The ’07 Patriots became the second team to do it, and it’s only happened five times since then. The Chiefs are that fifth team, as in week 9, Mahomes threw on 81% of his dropbacks in the Chiefs victory.

Buffalo and Josh Allen had a different sort of pass-heavy nature to their offense on Sunday. The Bills passed on over 70% of their plays, which is abnormally high because Buffalo led by at least a touchdown after every quarter. Yes, playing against Russell Wilson has that sort of impact on an offense, but this is still rare. How rare? Over the last three and a half seasons, only one other time has a team led by 7+ points after every quarter and passed on 70% of their plays: the Chiefs and Mahomes last week! Buffalo had 45 passes and 19 runs, but that includes 7 runs by Allen. Those were really three scrambles, three kneels, and one designed run; in other words, the Bills called 48 pass plays against just 13 runs, a 79% passing rate in a game they comfortably led throughout!

What about the Washington Football Team? They passed on 82% of plays, which is very high even for a losing team, but especially high for a team that lost a close game. In fact, it had been nearly four years since a team passed on so many plays despite losing by three or fewer points (or winning the game). There have only been a few games a year where a team passed that often, and all of the other recent games were much more one-sided.

Finally, a word on the Bucs and Saints game. Yes, Tampa Bay was ridiculously pass-happy in a blowout loss. Let’s begin with this: demolitions like this are rare. A team trailing by 14+ points after the first quarter and 30+ points after the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters happens a little less than once per season. Some teams give up, while others go pass-crazy. Tampa Bay? They went pass-crazy: the Bucs set an NFL record with just 5 rushing attempts in a game, and the last one was a kneel! In terms of pass ratio, the 89% mark set by the Bucs was the third highest in NFL history, behind two other losses where a team had 6 runs and more passes than Tampa Bay. ^[1]That Vikings game had 6 runs, but one was an aborted snap and another was a scramble. So there were just 4 called running plays in that game.

Baltimore, New England, and Arizona all charted as very run-heavy, and that makes sense. Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, and Kyler Murray are three of the most run-heavy quarterbacks in the NFL. Baltimore ran on 60% of their plays in a very close game, with Jackson himself recording 13 carries. The Patriots actually trailed most of the game but still ran more than they passed, as Newton himself had 10 carries (including two touchdowns). And for the Cardinals, they lost but still were very run-heavy, including 11 runs for over 100 yards by Murray.