Last week, I introduced the first edition of the SRS for the 2015 college football season. This week, we have a new number one: the Michigan Wolverines.
Michigan scored 38 points in a win over Northwestern yesterday; that matches the number of points allowed by the team all season. Michigan has now posted three consecutive shutouts, and all six games have come against FBS competition, allowing just 6.3 points per game in the process. Boston College is second in points allowed versus FBS competition, at 10 per game, but the Eagles are averaging only six points per game in those contests.
Michigan’s averaging a respectable 29.5 points per game this year; as a result, the Wolverines have an average points differential of 23.2 per game. The only teams better than that? Baylor (with a ridiculous 43.75 points per game differential) and Boise State (24), but Michigan’s tougher SOS gives the Wolverines the jump in the SRS.
Without further ado, below are the SRS ratings through six weeks. As always thanks to Dr. Peter R. Wolfe for providing the weekly game logs.
One question that is sure to come up with why are the Wolverines ahead of the Utes? The beauty of the SRS is not that it is perfect, but that it is elegant. It is a closed system where every variable acts in a rational way. The sum of the (adjusted) points differential and strength of schedule equals the team’s SRS rating; in addition, the average of the weekly SRS ratings equals the season rating. So let’s look at the SRS single-game rating for each game this year from Michigan and Utah:
Utah’s win over Michigan scored a +66.1, while Michigan received a +46.8 score in that game; so far, that makes sense. But Utah’s win over Oregon looks a lot less impressive now that the Ducks are 93rd in this system. And Michigan’s blowout wins over Northwestern and BYU are outstanding victories; those teams are 9-1 in all other games, with the one loss being a 3-point road loss against a strong UCLA team.
The other thing hurting Utah? A 21-point win over a Fresno State team that ranks 117th. Utah led 24-3 entering the fourth quarter of that game, where each team scored three touchdowns. A 24-3 win counts the same here as a 45-24 win, but either way, it’s considered unimpressive given that given that Fresno State lost by 26 to San Jose State, 42 to Utah State, and 52 to Ole Miss. Still, even if we pretended that game never existed, Utah would still be behind Michigan. The Utes average in the other five games: an MOV of 13.9, an SOS of 44.0, and a resulting SRS of 57.8.
Finally, below are the single-game SRS scores from week six:
As always, please leave any questions or comments you may have in the comments.
