The SEC West closed system is no more. If so inclined, one could note that Alabama lost to Ole Miss, and Ole Miss lost to Auburn, and Auburn lost to Georgia, and Georgia lost to both Florida and South Carolina, and Florida and South Carolina both lost to Missouri, and Missouri lost to Indiana. And Indiana is terrrrrible.

The Auburn loss to Georgia was enough to ruin this crazy streak: prior to Saturday, Auburn, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M were a combined 35-0 against the rest of college football this season. But on Saturday:

• Auburn lost badly to Georgia, 34-7. The Bulldogs are very good — and even better with Todd Gurley back — and now rank 5th in the SRS. But Georgia still did somehow lose to both Florida and South Carolina, who are a combined 9-9 this year against FBS opponents. As for the Tigers: I had been leading the Auburn bandwagon because they have easily played the toughest schedule to date in college football — oh, and Alabama is still on the schedule — but this was the straw that broke Auburn’s playoff chances.

• LSU was shut out against Arkansas, 17-0. The Razorbacks had been 4-5, albeit with losses to Alabama, Mississippi State, Auburn, Georgia, and Texas A&M.

• Texas A&M lost to Missouri, 34-27. The Tigers, of course, had the most embarrassing SEC performance of the season, losing to an Indiana team that is 0-6 in conference play. That’s 0-6 in the Big Ten, for you folks keeping score at home. And Missouri lost to them. As a result, any team that loses to Missouri gets to wear that shame by osmosis, and indirectly, you could stretch that all the way to Alabama.

Of course, the SRS is not based purely on wins and losses: in some ways, it isn’t based at all on wins and losses, as it is focused solely on points differential (adjusted for close games, blowouts, and home field) and strength of schedule. The table below shows the week 12 college football SRS ratings, with Alabama now moving into the top spot. As always thanks to Dr. Peter R. Wolfe for providing the weekly game logs. Some more playoff thoughts about the jump:

• It was a disastrous week for the SEC West. Its top team and last unbeaten contender lost. Auburn and A&M looked bad in losses to SEC East opponents. LSU looked lifeless on offense in a loss to an Arkansas team that had lost 17 straight conference games. Ole Miss was on a bye. ^[1]This was a real bye, not an “FCS bye.” Sure, Alabama won, and probably vaults into the #1 spot in the eyes of many. But for the division as a whole, it was easily the worst week of the year — heck, no other week this year counted as anything worse than “very good” for the division.

• In last week’s rankings, TCU was 3rd, while Baylor was 5th. This week, that has flopped: Baylor is now 4th, while TCU is 6th after the close game against Kansas. The Bears produced an SRS rating of 39.6 in this game, easily the team’s worst mark of the year.

• Let’s analyze TCU and Baylor a little bit. The entire Big 12 plays a round robin schedule, so both Baylor and TCU will each finish the year with 8 common opponents and the game against each other. That’s just by the end of the year, though: TCU has yet to play Texas or Iowa State, teams Baylor defeated by 21 points. Meanwhile, Baylor has yet to play Kansas State, Texas Tech, or Oklahoma State — opponents TCU beat by impressive margins of 21, 55, and 33 points. But that means there are 4 games against common opponents (Oklahoma, Kansas, West Virginia) or each other that we could examine. In those games, both teams are 3-1, but what about points differential? TCU won by an average score of 40-38.5, while Baylor won by an average of 49-31.75. I don’t think the head-to-head victory Baylor has is worth as much as some people, but a significant edge in points differential in common opponents does sway me. The SRS has Baylor over TCU, and I agree with that; in addition, I’d put Baylor over TCU in the playoffs assuming Baylor wins out. ^[2]To be fair, half of those games were home for Baylor, while 3 of the 4 were road games for TCU, but that doesn’t excuse the large points differential swing. As for rankings right now? … Continue reading

• A pair of overrated teams lost in week 12, ending any playoff hopes. Arizona State ranked just 19th in last week’s SRS; a loss to a bad Oregon State team drops ASU to 28th in these rankings. Meanwhile, Notre Dame was 31st last week and lost to Northwestern; the Irish are now 34th overall.

• What does this mean for the playoffs? Alabama, Florida State, and Oregon control their own destiny. Bama still has Auburn and a potentially challenging SECCG, so nothing is certain there. Florida State has Boston College and Florida — I wouldn’t be too worried there. Oregon’s biggest test would be in the Pac-12 title game, but that South opponent is looking easier and easier. Right now, it would be a rematch against UCLA, a game the Ducks would be heavily favored to win. But the ASU loss means there is no margin for error for the conference: an Oregon loss, and the Pac-12 is likely shut out of the playoffs.

• What about that 4th spot? For now, it appears to come down to the second Big 12 team, Ohio State, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State. Remember, the Egg Bowl is still to come: an MSU win would probably be enough to put them into the playoffs. After all, an 11-1 season with the only loss being in Tuscaloosa is hard to argue against. Ole Miss may have the toughest argument, but they did manage to beat Alabama and would have wins over Mississippi State, Tennessee, A&M, and Memphis. Ohio State needs to hope for style points or reputation: OSU’s best three wins would be against Michigan State, Maryland, and Penn State, while a loss to Virginia Tech remains on the ledger. You might not think much of Tennessee, A&M, or Memphis, but they are comparable or better to all of Ohio State’s wins other than Michigan State. Basically, the committee would have to decide what’s more impressive: going 5-2 against Alabama, Mississippi State, Auburn, LSU, Tennessee, A&M, and Memphis, or going 6-1 against Michigan State, Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Penn State, Cincinnati, and Navy. Of course, we’re still a long way off from that debate.

Finally, let’s look at the top performances from week 12. You can view the single-game ratings from every game this year at the 2014 NCAA games page. Georgia’s blow out of Auburn was the top game on Saturday, and ranks as the 3rd best of the year. The next best game was the Melvin Gordon-induced domination of Wisconsin over Nebraska, followed by Arkansas’s shutout victory of LSU.