Ohio State has beaten Michigan 13 times in the last 14 years. And the only time since 2003 that Michigan beat Ohio State was in 2011, when the Buckeyes were 6-6 and in the bridge year between Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer. And Ohio State nearly pulled off the upset!
For a rivalry known as The Game, it’s been remarkably one-sided for a long time: the last time Michigan beat an Ohio State team of any note, Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards were the stars of the game. It’s been awhile.
And yet, this year, both teams are likely in control of their own destiny. The winner of Saturday’s matchup will win the Big 10 East, and head to Indianapolis to face Northwestern in the Big 10 title game. A win there all but guarantees a playoff spot for a 12-1 Michigan team, and a 12-1 Ohio State team would be a favorite to make the college football playoff, too.
Here’s how I’d rank each team’s chances of being one of the four to make the College Football Playoff. Read it as such: keep going down the list until you find four teams that actually exist.
1. SEC Champion Alabama
2. ACC Champion Clemson
3. SEC Champion Georgia
4. 12-0 Notre Dame
5. B10 Champion Michigan
—– Those 5 teams are all “win out and they’re in”, although I note that if Georgia narrowly beats Alabama in an epic SEC Championship Game, there will be some murmurs to take an 12-1 Alabama over a 12-1 Michigan. Both teams will have lost to two playoff teams (Georgia, Notre Dame), and Alabama had been more dominant throughout the season. But the committee seems to value conference championships pretty highly, so I think they would go with Michigan.
6. 12-1 Bama (losing in the SEC Championship Game)
7. 12-1 Big 10 Champion Ohio State
8. 12-1 Big 12 Champion Oklahoma
—– This is the real pressure point for the committee: do you take a 12-1 Ohio State over a 12-1 Oklahoma? The Buckeyes have a much, much worse loss and arguably a tougher schedule. Oklahoma is, subjectively, a better team, too. But the Big 10 has been the better conference this season, and my gut is the committee would take Ohio State at 12-1 over Oklahoma at 12-1. I’d go the other way.
9. 12-1 Pac-12 Champion Washington State
—– Last year, the Pac-12’s best team was USC, and the Trojans playoff hopes were dashed with a Friday night loss on the road against Washington. This year, the Pac-12’s best team is Washington State, and the conference’s best chance to send a team to the playoff was crushed by a Friday night road loss to … USC. Washington State has had a great year, but there are zero notable non-conference games and the Pac-12 as a whole is a down conference. As such, even going 12-1 isn’t enough if there’s a 12-1 conference champion (or a 12-0 Notre Dame or a 12-1 Alabama) still out there.
10. 12-1 Clemson (L-ACCCG)
11. 11-1 Notre Dame
—– Chaos needs to ensue for us to get here.
12. 13-0 UCF
13. B12 Champion West Virginia
Below are the college football SRS ratings through 12 weeks.
And here are the single-game results from this week
What do you think?
