Where Does Ryan Tannehill Rank In The Pantheon Of Great QBs?

by Chase Stuart on July 2, 2016

in Quarterbacks

Tannehill escapes the numbers, if not the pass rush

In each of his four seasons in the NFL, Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been responsible for at least 96% of his team’s pass attempts. In fact, over the last three years, only 13 pass attempts for the Dolphins have come from someone other than Tannehill. He’s been the entrenched starter since week 1 of his rookie year.

There have been 88 quarterbacks since 1970 who have taken at least 90% of the same team’s pass attempts in every year in any four-year window. That includes eight such streaks that cover the last four years (Tannehill, Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Russell Wilson).

Among non-proprietary measures, my preferred measure of quarterback play is Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, which is yards per attempt with adjustments for touchdowns, interceptions, and sacks. The fine folks at Pro-Football-Reference.com have created a passing index for this (among other) stat, known as ANY/A+, where 100 represents league average, and 85 and 115 represent one standard deviation below/above average. Tannehill’s ANY/A+ was 92 his rookie year, 87 in 2013, 96 in 2014, and 95 last year.

Statistics like ANY/A never tell the full story, but let’s present them just to set the discussion. The table below shows each of the 88 quarterbacks identified above, along with their ANY/A+ in each year during such stretch, the passer’s average ANY/A+, and the number of playoff games started by that quarterback during that four-year window. As you can see, Tannehill stands out: he has the second worst ANY/A+ of any quarterback during that span, and is one of just three quarterbacks that failed to start a single playoff game.

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Quarterback	Years	Tm	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Avg	Playoff Starts
Mark Sanchez	2009--2012	NYJ	80	96	89	81	86.5	6
Ryan Tannehill	2012--2015	MIA	92	87	96	95	92.5	0
Joe Flacco	2010--2013	BAL	107	98	105	80	97.5	8
Joe Flacco	2011--2014	BAL	98	105	80	108	97.75	8
Eli Manning	2005--2008	NYG	102	95	91	104	98	7
Andy Dalton	2011--2014	CIN	97	97	104	95	98.25	4
Richard Todd	1980--1983	NYJ	86	109	113	90	99.5	4
Drew Bledsoe	1994--1997	NWE	98	86	108	111	100.75	6
Eli Manning	2006--2009	NYG	95	91	104	114	101	6
Eli Manning	2012--2015	NYG	109	81	108	108	101.5	0
Joe Flacco	2008--2011	BAL	96	105	107	98	101.5	9
Matthew Stafford	2012--2015	DET	99	106	99	103	101.75	1
Brett Favre	2003--2006	GNB	107	119	88	97	102.75	3
Eli Manning	2007--2010	NYG	91	104	114	104	103.25	5
Joe Ferguson	1979--1982	BUF	115	103	116	79	103.25	3
Richard Todd	1979--1982	NYJ	106	86	109	113	103.5	4
Eli Manning	2010--2013	NYG	104	121	109	81	103.75	4
Joe Flacco	2009--2012	BAL	105	107	98	105	103.75	10
Aaron Brooks	2001--2004	NOR	96	107	111	103	104.25	0
Eli Manning	2011--2014	NYG	121	109	81	108	104.75	4

Showing 1 to 20 of 88 entries

Given how mediocre his numbers have been, and his team’s general lack of success, it’s obvious that the data is missing something. At this point, it’s clear that Tannehill must be on the verge of a break-out season. After all, how else could Miami justify not just giving Tannehill a fifth season, but treating him as the team’s quarterback of the future? The Dolphins have won two Super Bowls and boast arguably the greatest coach and greatest quarterback in league history as franchise icons. The team has won at least 6 games in 44 different seasons since the merger, tied with the Steelers for the most among all NFL teams. Obviously the Dolphins see something in Tannehill that the numbers do not, which brings us back to the question: where does Ryan Tannehill rank in the pantheon of great quarterbacks?

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