The 2018 Bucs led the NFL in passing first downs and passing first down percentage for the second straight year. For the most part, passing first down percentage tells the story of how successful a team will be.
Passing first down percentage is defined as passing first downs divided by total team pass attempts (which includes sacks). The Bucs led the NFL at 39.8%, and were followed closely by four 12+ wins teams: the Rams (39.3%), Chiefs (39.2%), Chargers (39.0%), and Saints (39.0%). The bottom 8 teams in passing first down percentage all lost at least 9 games, with the Cardinals (25.0%), Bills (25.4%), Jaguars (27.8%), Jets (28.0%), and Redskins (28.2%) in the bottom five.
But Tampa Bay still went 5-11, because despite being outstanding at picking up first downs through the air, the Bucs had three problems:
- Tampa Bay had 35 turnovers, the most in the NFL.
- The Bucs running backs were very bad: they had 296 carries for just 1,049 yards (3.5 YPC) and picked up only 50 first downs. The 1,049 yards and 50 first downs were the fewest in the NFL by any set of running backs.
- Tampa Bay’s pass defense was also atrocious, which is the point of today’s post.
The Bucs pass defense allowed first downs on 36.5% of all passing plays, which was the worst rate in the NFL. And like most of the teams at the bottom of the list that didn’t have an MVP caliber quarterback, they were unsuccessful last year.
| Rk | Win % | Team | Opp Pass Att | Opp Sacks | Opp Pass 1D | Def 1D/PP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.750 | CHI | 615 | 50 | 186 | 28.0% |
| 2 | 0.625 | BAL | 577 | 43 | 174 | 28.1% |
| 3 | 0.531 | MIN | 503 | 50 | 160 | 28.9% |
| 4 | 0.375 | BUF | 492 | 36 | 157 | 29.7% |
| 5 | 0.313 | JAX | 499 | 37 | 162 | 30.2% |
| 6 | 0.750 | LAC | 548 | 38 | 178 | 30.4% |
| 7 | 0.688 | HOU | 594 | 43 | 200 | 31.4% |
| 8 | 0.563 | TEN | 533 | 39 | 182 | 31.8% |
| 9 | 0.563 | PHI | 626 | 44 | 215 | 32.1% |
| 10 | 0.813 | LAR | 533 | 41 | 185 | 32.2% |
| 11 | 0.594 | PIT | 566 | 52 | 200 | 32.4% |
| 12 | 0.250 | NYJ | 582 | 39 | 201 | 32.4% |
| 13 | 0.469 | CLE | 626 | 37 | 216 | 32.6% |
| 14 | 0.688 | NWE | 605 | 30 | 208 | 32.8% |
| 15 | 0.438 | CAR | 529 | 35 | 185 | 32.8% |
| 16 | 0.625 | DAL | 542 | 39 | 193 | 33.2% |
| 17 | 0.375 | DEN | 549 | 44 | 197 | 33.2% |
| 18 | 0.188 | ARI | 506 | 49 | 186 | 33.5% |
| 19 | 0.250 | SFO | 542 | 37 | 195 | 33.7% |
| 20 | 0.438 | WAS | 537 | 46 | 197 | 33.8% |
| 21 | 0.625 | SEA | 546 | 43 | 201 | 34.1% |
| 22 | 0.313 | NYG | 560 | 30 | 205 | 34.7% |
| 23 | 0.406 | GNB | 527 | 44 | 199 | 34.9% |
| 24 | 0.625 | IND | 542 | 38 | 203 | 35.0% |
| 25 | 0.375 | DET | 496 | 43 | 191 | 35.4% |
| 26 | 0.375 | CIN | 584 | 34 | 221 | 35.8% |
| 27 | 0.813 | NOR | 573 | 49 | 224 | 36.0% |
| 28 | 0.250 | OAK | 480 | 13 | 178 | 36.1% |
| 29 | 0.750 | KAN | 632 | 52 | 247 | 36.1% |
| 30 | 0.438 | MIA | 508 | 31 | 195 | 36.2% |
| 31 | 0.438 | ATL | 585 | 37 | 226 | 36.3% |
| 32 | 0.313 | TAM | 534 | 38 | 209 | 36.5% |
The top defenses in this metric were all good defenses overall, and for the most part, helped these teams have strong seasons. In the cases where they didn’t (Jacksonville, Buffalo) poor quarterback play tanked their season.