Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are going to the Hall of Fame. Randy Moss (who was arguably a Hall of Famer without his Patriots years) and the late Junior Seau (who was definitely a Hall of Famer without his time in New England) are already in Canton.  But who else from this nearly two-decade run of success will join them?

Darrelle Revis and Brian Waters each spent a season with the Patriots, and have good Hall of Fame cases.  Fred Taylor spent two half-seasons with the Patriots, and will have an uphill Hall of Fame battle.

But what about true Patriots — i.e., players who built the majority of their career in Foxboro in the Brady/Belichick era?  Who will one-day join then in Canton?

The Lock

Rob Gronkowski is the only Patriot of this era to be named 1st-team All-Pro at his position four times.  He is a future Hall of Fame player and will go in without much debate. He will likely be remembered as the best tight end of all time at his peak, and one of the greatest tight ends in league history.

The Near-Lock

Adam Vinatieri is, in some ways, more of a Colt than a Patriot at this point — 55% of his career points, 55% of his career field goals, and 75% of his career 50+ yard field goals have come as a member of Indianapolis.  However, what makes Vinatieri’s HOF case is his All-Pros (2 out of 3 came in New England) and postseason play (3 of his 4 Super Bowls, and all of his defining moments, came with New England).

It’s brutally difficult for kickers to make the Hall of Fame, however, and Vinatieri isn’t one of the most efficient kickers of all time, so he’s placed in the near lock category despite public perception assuming he’s already in. Five years ago, I would have placed him in the borderline category, but his sheer volume (he’s scored more points than anyone in NFL history) gives him an edge on some placekickers who were better for a shorter period of time.

The Borderline Candidates

This is where the group gets very large. Richard Seymour was a 5-time Pro Bowler and 3-time first-team All-Pro, but his peak was a bit short for a defensive lineman.  He didn’t produce big sack numbers because he was a 3-4 defensive end, but that may have also helped him get some of that All-Pro recognition (some votes place 3-4 defensive ends in the defensive tackle category, and he made the AP PFHOF All-Decade team as a defensive tackle).  He’s a borderline case whose star has dulled since he retired.  A decade ago, I named Seymour my 2nd-team All-Decade defensive end, and how the HOF views his position may go a long way to deciding whether he goes in.  Other question: was he any better at his position than Pittsburgh’s 3-4 DE Aaron Smith?  Seymour is a finalist this year.

Perhaps it is helpful to think of these two together: how does Seymour’s case compare to Vince Wilfork’s?  On paper, Seymour has the much stronger case (7 Pro Bowls, 3 1AP, 3 Super Bowls, 113 of AV) than the famed nose tackle (5, 1, 2 Super Bowls where Wilfork was outside of his prime years, 117 points of AV), but how much does the position impact those numbers?  Wilfork wasn’t being passed over as the game’s best nose tackle: he wasn’t even in the running! During his prime years, the voters typically would name a non-NT to the All-Pro team. Kevin Williams and  Albert Haynesworth (who was a disaster at a different position in Washington) were both 3-techniques who were the AP 1st-team All-Pro DT choices in ’07 and ’08, Williams and Jay Ratliff (a true nose tackle) shared the honors in ’09, Ndamukong Suh and Haloti Ngata earned it in ’10, Justin Smith (a 3-4 DE) and Ngata in ’11.  Wilfork as a 1AP All-Pro in ’12, but he only lost out to Ngata and Ratliff at his position in the five prior years.  Wilfork was also a second-team All-Pro selection in ’07, ’09 (Sporting News), ’10, and 11.

At cornerback, Ty Law has the highlight reel, the memorable postseason moments, the single-year dominance, and the reputation to make a strong HOF case.  But he is a little light on awards — two first-team AP All-Pro nods (and other than ’98 and ’03, he received no postseason recognition from any other reputable source) and five Pro Bowls are weaker than your average Hall of Famer.  He has some tough competition at cornerback, but he’s been a finalist now 3 years in a row. [Update: Law was inducted in 2019.]

The Uphill Battles

Wes Welker redefined the slot receiver position and averaged 7.2 receptions per game with the Patriots.  He was also part of the 2013 Broncos, but has the misfortune of going 0-3 in Super Bowls (losing twice to the Giants, and once where the Giants play their home games).  His resume is somewhat similar to Seymour — a fantastic 6-year stretch, some success with another team — but wide receiver is as competitive as it gets when it comes to the HOF.

At offensive line, Logan Mankins has more AV (114) and more Pro Bowls (6) in New England during the Brady era than any player other than Brady. Matt Light is just behind him in AV (109), and has 3 Pro Bowls and 1 1st-team All-Pro at the more glamorous left tackle position.  Still, neither was transcedent in a way that you figured they made the offense go rather than the other way around.  Both are worthy Patriots Hall of Fame cases but have longshot Pro Football HOF cases.

Mike Vrabel, Tedy Bruschi, and Jerod Mayo were each 8-year starters in New England at linebacker, with Vrabel and Bruschi being a part of 3 Super Bowl champions (Mayo was part of the ’14 team, but was injured for the Super Bowl).  But with just 4 Pro Bowls and 2 first-team All-Pros between the three of them, it’s going to be tough to gain much momentum.

Safety Rodney Harrison has a better case — a 2-time AP All-Pro, a 2-time Pro Bowler, a 2-time Super Bowl champion, and success outside of New England — but it’s tough to get to Canton at safety.  Harrison also has the negative reputation of being a dirty player. Defensive back Devin McCourty and offensive lineman Dan Koppen each were 9-year starters for New England, but lack the elite reputation necessary to make the Hall of Fame. Julian Edelman, who has built a remarkable postseason career, has yet to make a Pro Bowl or even finish in the top 10 in receiving yards in a single season.  Stephen Gostkowski has been around for 13 years, but has not been great enough for long enough to make it at placekicker.

What do you think?