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The 2005 Bears were a work of art.  Coached by Lovie Smith, with Ron Turner (OC) and Ron Rivera (DC) at his side, the Bears clinched the NFC North with an 11-4 record in week 16.  The Bears did this despite having one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL: at the time, Chicago ranked 31st in passer rating, passing yards, and passing touchdowns, only eclipsing the 49ers in all three categories.  Therefore, it’s fair to say that the team’s success was overwhelmingly due to a dominant defense and a solid running game powered by Thomas Jones (the special teams were not particularly good, either).

In fact, by one measure, the 2005 Bears got more out of bad QB play than any other team since 1970.  How did I measure that?

1) Calculate each team’s winning percentage in each season.  At 11-5 (which includes a loss in the regular season finale where the team benched its starters), the Bears had a 0.688 winning percentage; among all teams since 1970, that’s about 1 standard deviation better than average (technically +0.97 standard deviations, or the team’s Z-Score in winning percentage.)

2) Calculate each team’s Relative ANY/A in each season.  Chicago averaged just 3.45 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt in 2005, which was far below the league average of 5.35 that season.  Therefore, the 2005 Bears have a Relative ANY/A of -1.90, which is 1.64 standard deviations below average since the merger.  This gives Chicago a Z-Score of -1.64 in passing efficiency.

3) Subtract the results from step 2 (-1.64) from the result in step 1 (+0.97).  For the ’05 Bears, this results in +2.61, which is a measure of how much the team overachieved relative to its passing efficiency.

That’s the best result of any team since 1970.  The second-best result also belongs to a Bears team.  In 1986, Chicago went 14-2, which gave them a 0.875 winning percentage and a +1.94 Z-Score. Meanwhile, the passing offense was 0.59 standard deviations below average, as the offense split time between Mike Tomczak and Jim McMahon.  That results in a score of +2.54.  That Bears team had a dominant defense, but some teams are high up on this list thanks to a dominant running game.  The #3 team is the ’73 Bills, which was powered by O.J. Simpson (and the Electric Company) and his record 2,000-yard season.  The table below shows all teams to have a score of at least +1.00 by this metric. For each team, I have also listed their top QB and their top player by AV.

The table is fully sortable and searchable, so if you want to type in “NYJ”, you can see that 3 of Rex Ryan’s Jets teams have a score of +1.20 or higher.  You can also sort by year, and see that the Steelers, Patriots, and Packers from 2019 all make the list.

YearTeamWin %Z-Win%RANY/AStDevZ-PassTop QBTop AV
2005CHI0.6880.97-1.90-1.642.61Kyle OrtonLance Briggs
1986CHI0.8751.94-0.69-0.592.54Mike TomczakWilber Marshall
1973BUF0.6430.74-2.05-1.772.51Joe FergusonO.J. Simpson
1982MIA0.7781.44-1.19-1.032.46David WoodleyBob Baumhower
1971MIN0.7861.48-1.10-0.952.43Gary CuozzoAlan Page
2015DEN0.7501.29-1.12-0.972.27Peyton ManningVon Miller
1988NWE0.5630.32-2.22-1.922.24Doug FlutieAndre Tippett
1973CLE0.5710.37-1.98-1.712.08Mike PhippsClarence Scott
2000BAL0.7501.29-0.89-0.772.07Tony BanksRay Lewis
1995PHI0.6250.65-1.63-1.412.05Rodney PeeteWilliam Thomas
1974PIT0.7501.29-0.81-0.702.00Joe GilliamJoe Greene
1991PHI0.6250.65-1.54-1.331.98Jim McMahonReggie White
2004ATL0.6880.97-1.16-1.001.97Michael VickMichael Vick
2001CHI0.8131.62-0.36-0.321.93Jim MillerBrian Urlacher
1986NYG0.8751.940.030.031.92Phil SimmsLawrence Taylor
1974ATL0.214-1.48-3.93-3.391.92Bob LeeClaude Humphrey
2003BAL0.6250.65-1.44-1.241.89Kyle BollerRay Lewis
1987PIT0.5330.17-1.97-1.701.87Mark MaloneMike Merriweather
1983PIT0.6250.65-1.38-1.191.84Cliff StoudtJack Lambert
2006CHI0.8131.62-0.24-0.211.82Rex GrossmanBrian Urlacher
2016HOU0.5630.32-1.74-1.501.82Brock OsweilerWhitney Mercilus
1976NWE0.7861.48-0.39-0.341.82Steve GroganJohn Hannah
2009NYJ0.5630.32-1.69-1.461.78Mark SanchezDavid Harris
1971BAL0.7141.11-0.75-0.651.76Johnny UnitasTed Hendricks
1972PIT0.7861.48-0.32-0.271.75Terry BradshawJoe Greene
2010CHI0.6880.97-0.89-0.771.74Jay CutlerJulius Peppers
1982RAI0.8892.010.350.301.72Jim PlunkettMarcus Allen
1999TAM0.6880.97-0.85-0.731.70Trent DilferDerrick Brooks
1972CLE0.7141.11-0.65-0.561.67Mike PhippsMike Phipps
1984DEN0.8131.62-0.04-0.031.65John ElwaySteve Foley
1987CHI0.7331.21-0.47-0.411.62Jim McMahonSteve McMichael
1985RAI0.7501.29-0.37-0.321.62Marc WilsonMike Haynes
1995KAN0.8131.620.000.001.62Steve BonoNeil Smith
2004BAL0.5630.32-1.48-1.281.60Kyle BollerRay Lewis
1985WAS0.6250.65-1.09-0.941.59Joe TheismannRuss Grimm
2018BUF0.375-0.65-2.58-2.231.58Josh AllenKyle Williams
2008TEN0.8131.620.050.041.58Kerry CollinsAlbert Haynesworth
2004PIT0.9382.270.800.691.58Ben RoethlisbergerJames Farrior
2017CAR0.6880.97-0.69-0.591.57Cam NewtonCam Newton
1980HOU0.6880.97-0.69-0.591.57Ken StablerEarl Campbell
1985CHI0.9382.270.810.701.57Jim McMahonRichard Dent
2000DET0.5630.32-1.43-1.231.56Charlie BatchStephen Boyd
2008PIT0.7501.29-0.29-0.251.54Ben RoethlisbergerJames Harrison
1979HOU0.6880.97-0.66-0.571.54Dan PastoriniEarl Campbell
1979KAN0.438-0.32-2.15-1.861.54Steve FullerGary Barbaro
2015MIN0.6880.97-0.65-0.561.53Teddy BridgewaterAdrian Peterson
1973PIT0.7141.11-0.47-0.411.52Terry BradshawJoe Greene
1993HOU0.7501.29-0.24-0.211.50Warren MoonRay Childress
1997NOR0.375-0.65-2.49-2.151.50Heath ShulerWinfred Tubbs
1975OAK0.7861.48-0.02-0.021.50Ken StablerPhil Villapiano
1976WAS0.7141.11-0.43-0.371.48Billy KilmerMike Thomas
1971CHI0.429-0.37-2.13-1.841.47Bobby DouglassDick Butkus
2000PHI0.6880.97-0.58-0.501.47Donovan McNabbHugh Douglas
2015CAR0.9382.270.920.801.47Cam NewtonCam Newton
1991DET0.7501.29-0.20-0.171.47Erik KramerBarry Sanders
2013NYJ0.5000.00-1.69-1.461.46Geno SmithMuhammad Wilkerson
2012MIN0.6250.65-0.94-0.811.46Christian PonderAdrian Peterson
2013CAR0.7501.29-0.18-0.161.45Cam NewtonLuke Kuechly
1989PIT0.5630.32-1.30-1.121.45Bubby BristerRod Woodson
2011BAL0.7501.29-0.18-0.151.45Joe FlaccoHaloti Ngata
1999ARI0.375-0.65-2.41-2.081.43Jake PlummerSimeon Rice
2000MIA0.6880.97-0.52-0.451.42Jay FiedlerJason Taylor
1981NYG0.5630.32-1.27-1.101.42Phil SimmsLawrence Taylor
2003NWE0.8751.940.610.521.42Tom BradyTy Law
2007TEN0.6250.65-0.87-0.751.40Vince YoungAlbert Haynesworth
1975HOU0.7141.11-0.34-0.291.40Dan PastoriniKen Burrough
1997KAN0.8131.620.250.221.40Elvis GrbacJames Hasty
1970MIN0.8571.850.530.451.40Gary CuozzoAlan Page
1999JAX0.8751.940.630.551.40Mark BrunellTony Boselli
1998SDG0.313-0.97-2.73-2.361.39Craig WhelihanJunior Seau
1990CHI0.6880.97-0.46-0.401.37Jim HarbaughRichard Dent
2011SFO0.8131.620.290.251.37Alex SmithJustin Smith
2012CHI0.6250.65-0.83-0.721.37Jay CutlerJulius Peppers
1976SFO0.5710.37-1.14-0.991.36Jim PlunkettDelvin Williams
2019PIT0.5000.00-1.57-1.361.36Mason RudolphCameron Heyward
1981RAM0.375-0.65-2.31-1.991.35Pat HadenNolan Cromwell
1990DAL0.438-0.32-1.93-1.671.34Troy AikmanDanny Stubbs
1978CHI0.438-0.32-1.92-1.661.34Bob AvelliniWalter Payton
1997NYG0.6560.81-0.61-0.521.33Danny KanellMichael Strahan
2005TAM0.6880.97-0.42-0.361.33Chris SimmsRonde Barber
2007NYG0.6250.65-0.77-0.671.31Eli ManningOsi Umenyiora
1984RAI0.6880.97-0.38-0.331.30Marc WilsonRod Martin
1986KAN0.6250.65-0.75-0.651.30Bill KenneyDeron Cherry
2017BAL0.5630.32-1.12-0.961.29Joe FlaccoC.J. Mosley
1989DEN0.6880.97-0.37-0.321.29John ElwayKarl Mecklenburg
1975RAM0.8571.850.660.571.28James HarrisJack Youngblood
1972DAL0.7141.11-0.19-0.171.28Craig MortonCalvin Hill
1989PHI0.6880.97-0.35-0.301.27Randall CunninghamReggie White
2013BAL0.5000.00-1.47-1.271.27Joe FlaccoTerrell Suggs
1986RAM0.6250.65-0.72-0.621.27Jim EverettLeRoy Irvin
1977TAM0.143-1.85-3.60-3.111.26Gary HuffJeris White
1980OAK0.6880.97-0.33-0.291.26Jim PlunkettLester Hayes
1994CLE0.6880.97-0.33-0.291.26Vinny TestaverdeEric Turner
1981MIA0.7191.13-0.14-0.121.26David WoodleyEd Newman
1979RAM0.5630.32-1.08-0.931.26Pat HadenJack Youngblood
1983NOR0.5000.00-1.45-1.251.25Ken StablerRickey Jackson
1976ATL0.286-1.11-2.72-2.351.24Kim McQuilkenAlfred Jenkins
2003STL0.7501.290.060.051.24Marc BulgerTorry Holt
1982DET0.444-0.29-1.77-1.531.24Gary DanielsonDoug English
2004CHI0.313-0.97-2.56-2.211.24Chad HutchinsonAlex Brown
2012IND0.6880.97-0.29-0.251.22Andrew LuckAndrew Luck
2018CHI0.7501.290.090.081.22Mitchell TrubiskyKhalil Mack
2010NYJ0.6880.97-0.29-0.251.22Mark SanchezSione Pouha
2016NYG0.6880.97-0.28-0.241.22Eli ManningDamon Harrison
2010ATL0.8131.620.470.411.21Matt RyanMatt Ryan
1984RAM0.6250.65-0.65-0.561.21Jeff KempEric Dickerson
2019NWE0.7501.290.100.091.21Tom BradyStephon Gilmore
1996DEN0.8131.620.480.411.21John ElwayAlfred Williams
1993CHI0.438-0.32-1.77-1.521.20Jim HarbaughRichard Dent
2012ARI0.313-0.97-2.51-2.171.20John SkeltonDaryl Washington
2009CLE0.313-0.97-2.51-2.161.19Brady QuinnJoe Thomas
1993DET0.6250.65-0.63-0.541.19Rodney PeetePat Swilling
2011JAX0.313-0.97-2.50-2.161.19Blaine GabbertMaurice Jones-Drew
1971CLE0.6430.74-0.50-0.431.17Bill NelsenLeroy Kelly
2019GNB0.8131.620.530.461.16Aaron RodgersAaron Rodgers
2003CHI0.438-0.32-1.70-1.461.14Kordell StewartJerry Azumah
1970DEN0.393-0.55-1.95-1.691.13Pete LiskeRich Jackson
1985RAM0.6880.97-0.18-0.161.13Dieter BrockLeRoy Irvin
1970GNB0.429-0.37-1.73-1.501.13Bart StarrDonny Anderson
1991DEN0.7501.290.200.171.13John ElwaySteve Atwater
1985DEN0.6880.97-0.18-0.151.12John ElwayRulon Jones
2001BAL0.6250.65-0.55-0.471.12Elvis GrbacRay Lewis
2005SFO0.250-1.29-2.80-2.411.12Alex SmithDerek Smith
2006BAL0.8131.620.580.501.12Steve McNairAdalius Thomas
2019BUF0.6250.65-0.54-0.461.11Josh AllenTre'Davious White
1998PIT0.438-0.32-1.66-1.431.11Kordell StewartDermontti Dawson
2003DAL0.6250.65-0.53-0.461.10Quincy CarterLa'Roi Glover
2008BAL0.6880.97-0.15-0.131.10Joe FlaccoRay Lewis
1979TAM0.6250.65-0.52-0.451.10Doug WilliamsLee Roy Selmon
1970PIT0.357-0.74-2.12-1.831.09Terry BradshawAndy Russell
2003PHI0.7501.290.230.201.09Donovan McNabbDonovan McNabb
1992IND0.5630.32-0.89-0.771.09Jeff GeorgeChip Banks
2014CIN0.6560.81-0.33-0.281.09Andy DaltonAndrew Whitworth
1978ATL0.5630.32-0.89-0.771.09Steve BartkowskiGreg Brezina
1970MIA0.7141.110.030.021.09Bob GrieseJim Kiick
2013NWE0.7501.290.250.221.08Tom BradyLogan Mankins
1981OAK0.438-0.32-1.62-1.401.08Marc WilsonLester Hayes
1989NYG0.7501.290.260.221.07Phil SimmsLawrence Taylor
1998OAK0.5000.00-1.24-1.071.07Donald HollasDarrell Russell
1976NYJ0.214-1.48-2.96-2.551.07Joe NamathClark Gaines
1977NYG0.357-0.74-2.10-1.811.07Joe PisarcikBrad Van Pelt
1990NOR0.5000.00-1.24-1.071.07John FourcadePat Swilling
1978RAM0.7501.290.260.221.07Pat HadenJack Youngblood
2008NYJ0.5630.32-0.86-0.741.07Brett FavreAlan Faneca
2003MIA0.6250.65-0.47-0.411.05Jay FiedlerZach Thomas
1980BUF0.6880.97-0.09-0.081.05Joe FergusonJoe Cribbs
1977DEN0.8571.850.920.801.05Craig MortonBill Thompson
2016KAN0.7501.290.290.251.05Alex SmithMarcus Peters
1995TAM0.438-0.32-1.58-1.371.04Trent DilferHardy Nickerson
2014DET0.6880.97-0.08-0.071.04Matthew StaffordNdamukong Suh
1999SDG0.5000.00-1.20-1.041.04Jim HarbaughJunior Seau
1991CHI0.6880.97-0.07-0.061.03Jim HarbaughMike Singletary
1988CHI0.7501.290.310.261.03Jim McMahonMike Singletary
2009CAR0.5000.00-1.19-1.031.03Jake DelhommeJulius Peppers
2017TEN0.5630.32-0.81-0.701.02Marcus MariotaKevin Byard
1977ATL0.5000.00-1.18-1.021.02Scott HunterRolland Lawrence
1996BUF0.6250.65-0.43-0.371.02Jim KellyBruce Smith
1992DEN0.5000.00-1.18-1.021.02John ElwayGreg Kragen
1983DET0.5630.32-0.80-0.691.02Eric HippleDoug English
2006TEN0.5000.00-1.18-1.021.02Vince YoungVince Young
2002TAM0.7501.290.330.291.01Brad JohnsonDerrick Brooks
2011CHI0.5000.00-1.17-1.011.01Jay CutlerBrian Urlacher
1994ARI0.5000.00-1.16-1.001.00Steve BeuerleinAeneas Williams
1994NYG0.5630.32-0.78-0.681.00Dave BrownDave Brown
1980MIA0.5000.00-1.16-1.001.00David WoodleyBob Baumhower
1983RAI0.7501.290.340.301.00Jim PlunkettRod Martin
1998NYG0.5000.00-1.16-1.001.00Danny KanellMichael Strahan

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