In December 2008, I wrote about the wonderful rookie seasons that Matt Ryan and, to a lesser extent, Joe Flacco, were having. I concluded that Ryan might very well finish with the greatest rookie season of all time. The only two rookie seasons (excluding “rookie” seasons that did not come immediately following the player’s final collegiate season) that came close since the merger were Dan Marino in 1984 and Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, and Ryan had them both beat on quantity (Marino started just 9 games, while Roethlisberger played for the most run-heavy team in the league).

Then, 2012 happened, when Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, and RG3 all had great rookie seasons. Luck took a team from 2-14 to 11-5, set a rookie record for passing yards that still stands, and led the NFL with seven game-winning drives. He also was arguably the least-impressive of the trio. Griffin led the NFL in yards per attempt and in yards per carry. Wait just re-read that sentence again and let it sink in how remarkable that is. And then there was Wilson, who posted a 100.0 passer rating, led Seattle to an 11-5 record, and set a still-standing rookie record with 30 touchdowns.

In 2016, Dak Prescott basically out-Ryan’ed Ryan. His team went 13-3, Prescott set a rookie record with a 104.9 passer rating and 7.86 ANY/A. He had a 23/4 TD/INT ratio while also ranking 4th in NY/A.

And then last season, Deshaun Watson took the league by storm over seven games. Yes, it was only 7 games, but he produced 21 touchdowns and averaged 8.3 yards per attempt and a 103.0 passer rating. He also averaged 7.5 yards per carry and was certainly gearing up to be in the discussion for greatest rookie seasons in quarterback history.

There have been 7 seasons since 1970 ^[1]It is worth noting that Greg Cook, Joe Namath, and Fran Tarkenton all had very good rookie seasons in the 1960s. where a passer had an ANY/A+ of 110 or higher: this means a season where his ANY/A was significantly above average. Marino 84 is one, and then the other six are all from active quarterbacks: Roethlisberger 04, Ryan 08, Griffin and Wilson 12, Prescott 16, and Watson 17.

Lest you think there’s something weird with ANY/A+ as a measuring stick, consider that since the merger, just 9 quarterbacks have made the Pro Bowl as rookies. Marino 83, and then… Vince Young 06, Andy Dalton 2011, Cam Newton 2011, Wilson/Griffin/Luck 12, Jameis Winston in 2015, and Prescott in 2016.

How about AP Offensive Rookie of the Year? In 1970, Dennis Shaw won a closely contested race: the Bills quarterback picked up 21 votes, Cowboys RB Duane Thomas had 16 votes and Raiders TE Raymond Chester received 13 votes. It’s possible that Thomas was already alienating the media as early as his rookie year, or that he was being being docked for the success of the team’s rookie running back the prior year. Regardless, Shaw did not have a very good season: Shaw was below average in both passer rating and ANY/A, and Buffalo went 3-8-1 under his watch.

And yet: from the inception of the AP OROY award in 1967 through 2003, Shaw was the only quarterback to win the award. But after going 1-for-37, quarterbacks now have a 50% success rate: Ben Roethlisberger, Vince Young, Ryan, Sam Bradford, Newton, Griffin, and Prescott have all won the award in the last 14 seasons.

But perhaps here’s the best way to make the point. I know passer rating has soared in recent years, and looking at raw passer rating is basically useless. But still: ten years ago, the top three passer ratings by a rookie in NFL history (minimum 224 pass attempts) belonged to Marino, Roethlisberger, and… Charlie Batch!

So what do you think is the reason that rookie quarterbacks are much more likely to have success now than ever before?