Yesterday, I wrote that we are living in the golden age of NFL rookies. I don’t think it’s controversial to state that — even after adjusting for era — five of the best six seasons by a rookie QB from 1970 to 2017 all came from active quarterbacks: Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, Matt Ryan in 2008, Russell Wilson and RG3 in 2012, and Dak Prescott in 2016. Note that this doesn’t even include Andrew Luck in 2012 (who actually got more ORotY votes than Wilson) because he had mediocre efficiency numbers, or Deshaun Watson in 2017 because he was limited to just seven games, or Vince Young 06, Andy Dalton 2011, Cam Newton 2011, and Jameis Winston in 2015, who, along with Marino, Wilson, Griffin, Luck, and Prescott, are the only rookie quarterbacks to make the Pro Bowl since the merger. Or Sam Bradford, who won AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, something no quarterback other than Marino did from 1971 to 2003.
So, what gives? The graph below shows all rookie passers since 1970 to start at least 8 games and throw at least 150 passes. On the X-Axis, the year; on the Y-Axis, the passer’s ANY/A+, which is on a scale where 100 equals NFL league average, 115 represents one standard deviation above average, and 130 represents two standard deviations above average.
So I think there are a few things going on. There were, of course, 48 seasons from 1970 to 2017. However, just 25 of the rookie passers came in the first 16 seasons, and only half of all rookie passers with 8 starts and 150+ attempts came in the first 33 seasons!
1993 might be the first turning point. There are 76 passers who meet the above criteria. In the 23 seasons from 1970 to 1992, just 25 rookie passers started enough games to be included in this study. Meanwhile, the next 25 years brought in 51 rookie passers.
From 1993 to 2005, over 13 seasons, there were 17 passers who qualified. Then, starting in 2006, there have been 34 qualifying passers in just 13 years, which makes up 45% of the group! Call it the Roethlisberger effect, as Roethlisberger’s fantastic ’04 season combined with his Super Bowl winning ’05 season may have helped usher in this new era (interestingly, the horrendous rookie year by 2005 first overall pick Alex Smith (over just 7 starts, missing the cutoff here) didn’t seem to stop the trend).
So it’s fair to wonder whether we would have seen more impressive rookie campaigns had teams not been so afraid to play them. We saw Joe Namath, Fran Tarkenton, and Greg Cook have great rookie seasons in the ’60s, but after the downturn in passing in the early ’70s, NFL teams moved away from starting rookie quarterbacks.
On the other hand, we did see future Hall of Famers like Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman, and Steve Young really struggle as rookies, while second-tier stars like Vinny Testaverde, Jeff George, and Randall Cunningham had similar rough beginnings before turning into star passers. John Elway and Dan Fouts weren’t particularly good as rookies, either.
So I think it’s a little of column A and a little of column B. Teams are definitely more willing to play rookie passers than before, and rookie passers are performing better than before. It may be because the college game more closely resembles the pro game now than it used to, or NFL coaching staffs are getting better at making their offenses more rookie-friendly. Or maybe this generation of passers are just better, having gone through extensive training as a passer for most of their teenage years.
What do you think?