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An ordinary hit

An ordinary hit.

Just about every article about Trent Richardson references his unimpressive 3.6 yards per carry average from last season. That stat is pretty meaningless, in my opinion. I suppose if you took a random running back from NFL history, and his YPC average in one random season was 3.6, and I knew nothing else about the player, I suppose I would probably assume that the running back was not (or was not going to become) a star. But Richardson isn’t a random running back from a database, because…

  • His 3.6 YPC average came on 267 carries, which represented 77% of all carries by Cleveland running backs
  • He was a rookie last year
  • He was a high first round pick

Since 1970, only 13 first round rookies have recorded 70% of all running back carries by their team. Two of those players were Richardson and Tampa Bay’s Doug Martin last year. Of that group, Richardson did post the lowest YPC average, but he was within 0.1 YPC of LaDainian Tomlinson. The next two lowest averages belong to Robert Edwards and Emmitt Smith; the former suffered a career-debilitating injury in a beach football game after his rookie season, while the latter ran for the most yards in NFL history.

Yeah, Richardson’s yards per carry average was well below average. But the universe of first round running backs who became workhorses right away as rookies and had a low YPC average consists of a HOF running back, a future HOF running back, and a player who suffered the flukiest of injuries. Richardson has something else in common with Emmitt Smith: after both of their rookie seasons, Norv Turner came on board as offensive coordinator.

But let’s say you don’t want to give Richardson any credit for his draft status. And you’re not in the mood to give him a pass just because he was a rookie. OK. Since 1990, 48 running backs have averaged fewer than 3.8 yards per carry while recording at least 70% of all running back carries for their team. Twenty-six of those players were at least 27 years old, and on the back half of their careers. Here are the other 22 running backs:

YearNameTeam%RB_CarAgeRshRshYdYPCRshTDRecRecYdRecTD
2012Trent RichardsonCLE76.7222679503.5611513671
2009Matt ForteCHI78.9242589293.64574710
2003Ricky WilliamsMIA89.52639213723.59503511
2002Edgerrin JamesIND70.7242779893.572613541
2001LaDainian TomlinsonSDG91.42233912363.6510593670
1999Curtis EnisCHI84.2232879163.193453402
1998Jerome BettisPIT79.62631611853.75316900
1998Curtis MartinNYJ79.92536912873.498433651
1998Eddie GeorgeTEN92.12534812943.725373101
1997Jamal AndersonATL75.12529010023.467292843
1997Karim Abdul-JabbarMIA73.1232838923.1515292611
1996Curtis MartinNWE80.82331611523.6514463333
1996Karim Abdul-JabbarMIA70.92230711163.6411231390
1995Edgar BennettGNB882631610673.383616484
1995Ricky WattersPHI74.42633712733.7811624341
1995Errict RhettTAM91.52533212073.6411141100
1995Garrison HearstARI782428410703.771292431
1995Marshall FaulkIND71.52228910783.7311564753
1994Rodney HamptonNYG72.32532710753.296141030
1994Errict RhettTAM71.92428410113.567221190
1994Jerome BettisRAM90.62231910253.213312931
1992Reggie CobbTAM79.12431011713.789211560

That looks to me like a pretty impressive group of running backs, including some of the best runners of the last two decades. Note that this excludes Marshawn Lynch, who was the main running back for the Seahawks in 2010. He averaged 3.5 YPC, but since he was traded from Buffalo in mid-season, he didn’t hit the 70% threshold.

A player’s yards per carry average can be inflated by a few large runs, and it can be deflated by the lack thereof. Richardson’s longest run was 32 yards; his second longest was 26, and both of those went for touchdowns. Those were Richardson’s only two carries of 20+ yards last year, and a 19-yarder against the Ravens was his only other run that cracked 15 yards. Personally, I’m not worried about Richardson’s ability to hit the home run. I suspect Richardson will easily eclipse two 20+ yard runs and three 15+ yard runs in 2013.

What’s more important is consistent success in the running game. One thing I like to look at is 1st and 10 runs. There were 24 players with 100 rush attempts in that situation last year. On average, the group gained at least 4 yards on 46.0% of their carries. Richardson actually eclipsed the average there, picking up 4 yards on 47.3% of his runs.

Running backRush4+ ydsSucc Rate
Shonn Greene1507952.7
C.J. Spiller1166152.6
Alfred Morris1789352.2
Stevan Ridley1427250.7
Adrian Peterson1778950.3
Jamaal Charles1628150
Marshawn Lynch1487450
Reggie Bush1286450
Frank Gore1336548.9
Ahmad Bradshaw1135548.7
Trent Richardson1316247.3
Steven Jackson1426747.2
Mark Ingram1044947.1
Doug Martin1808446.7
Ray Rice1225545.1
Ryan Mathews1104944.5
Arian Foster1506644
Chris Johnson1536743.8
Mikel Leshoure1235141.5
Matt Forte1385741.3
DeAngelo Williams1064340.6
Vick Ballard1094440.4
Michael Turner1194739.5
BenJarvus Green-Ellis1566038.5
Darren McFadden1042726

Richardson played just fine as a rookie. His YPC average was poor, but he played on a bad offense and was banged up for much of the year. A few more big runs, and no one would be talking about his 3.6 average gain. If you liked Richardson last year, I see no reason not to like him this year.

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