Wide Receiver Production Vs. Salary Cap Hit For 2017

by Chase Stuart on March 28, 2018

in Checkdowns, Receiving

There were 66 wide receivers with salary cap hits of at least $2,000,000 in 2017, based on data from Over The Cap. There were 67 wide receivers in 2017 who had at least 700 Adjusted Catch Yards, which is receiving yards with a 20-yard bonus for touchdowns and a 5-yard bonus for catches (for reference, Jeremy Maclin with a 40-440-3 line is the cutoff here at exactly 700 ACY). In other words, I wanted to set a bar for both salary cap hits and production that was pretty low, but not so low that the data would be overpopulated with fringe players.

There were 89 wide receivers who had either cap hits of $2M or 700 ACY in 2017. The correlation coefficient between the two variables was 0.31, indicating a moderately positive correlation but nothing more. The graph below shows those wide receivers with salary cap dollars (in millions) on the Y-Axis, and Adjusted Catch Yards on the X-Axis. The most valuable receivers would be on the bottom right (low cap hit, high production) while the least valuable would be on the upper left (high cap hit, low production).

The five at the bottom right are Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Jarvis Landry, Adam Thielen, and Brandin Cooks — all but Thielen had a cap hit below $2M, with Thielen being the dot at $4M but with 1,812 ACY.

On the other side, in a world of his own, is Tavon Austin. With a cap hit of nearly $15M, Austin was the fourth most expensive wide receiver in 2017. He finished the season with just 14 receptions for 61 yards and zero touchdowns.

Here’s another way to think of it. For this group of 89 wide receivers, the average salary was $4.86M, with a standard deviation of $4.29M. So Thomas, with a cap hit of $1.16M, was 0.86 standard deviations below average in terms of salary. The average ACY was 977 with a standard deviation of 517. So Thomas, with 1,865 ACY, was 1.72 standard deviations above average. So Thomas had a Z-Score of -0.86 for salary cap value and a Z-score of +1.72 for production. If we subtract cap hit from production, Thomas has a value of +2.58, the best in the NFL last year. Austin, with Z-Scores of +2.36 for salary cap and -1.64 for production, is at -3.99 in terms of value, by far the worst in the NFL.

Search:

Rk	Wide Receiver	Team	Rec	Yard	TD	ACY	Cap (Mill)	Z-Score Sal	Z-Score ACY	Value
1	Michael Thomas	nor	104	1245	5	1865	$1.16	-0.86	1.72	2.58
2	Tyreek Hill	kan	75	1183	7	1698	$0.59	-1.00	1.39	2.39
3	Jarvis Landry	mia	112	987	9	1727	$1.11	-0.88	1.45	2.33
4	Adam Thielen	min	91	1277	4	1812	$3.75	-0.26	1.61	1.87
5	Brandin Cooks	nwe	65	1082	7	1547	$1.56	-0.77	1.10	1.87
6	Robby Anderson	nyj	63	941	7	1396	$0.54	-1.01	0.81	1.82
7	JuJu Smith-Schuster	pit	58	917	7	1347	$0.74	-0.96	0.72	1.68
8	Stefon Diggs	min	64	849	8	1329	$0.67	-0.98	0.68	1.66
9	Cooper Kupp	ram	62	869	5	1279	$0.70	-0.97	0.58	1.55
10	Devin Funchess	car	63	840	8	1315	$1.51	-0.78	0.65	1.44
11	Jamison Crowder	was	66	789	3	1179	$0.75	-0.96	0.39	1.35
12	Doug Baldwin	sea	75	991	8	1526	$4.42	-0.10	1.06	1.16
13	Keenan Allen	sdg	102	1393	6	2023	$8.65	0.88	2.02	1.14
14	Jermaine Kearse	nyj	65	810	5	1235	$2.20	-0.62	0.50	1.12
15	Keelan Cole	jax	42	748	3	1018	$0.47	-1.02	0.08	1.10
16	Tyrell Williams	sdg	43	728	4	1023	$0.62	-0.99	0.09	1.08
17	Nelson Agholor	phi	62	768	8	1238	$2.56	-0.54	0.50	1.04
18	Sterling Shepard	nyg	59	731	2	1066	$1.35	-0.82	0.17	0.99
19	Mike Evans	tam	71	1001	5	1456	$4.61	-0.06	0.93	0.98
20	Marquise Goodwin	sfo	56	962	2	1282	$3.25	-0.38	0.59	0.97
21	Adam Humphries	tam	61	631	1	956	$0.62	-0.99	-0.04	0.95
22	Davante Adams	gnb	74	885	10	1455	$4.85	0.00	0.92	0.93
23	Sammy Watkins	ram	39	593	8	948	$0.69	-0.97	-0.06	0.92
24	Paul Richardson	sea	44	703	6	1043	$1.50	-0.78	0.13	0.91
25	Marqise Lee	jax	56	702	3	1042	$1.65	-0.75	0.13	0.88
26	Martavis Bryant	pit	50	603	3	913	$0.72	-0.97	-0.12	0.84
27	Kenny Stills	mia	58	847	6	1257	$3.75	-0.26	0.54	0.80
28	Ryan Grant	was	45	573	4	878	$0.74	-0.96	-0.19	0.77
29	Ted Ginn	nor	53	787	4	1132	$3.00	-0.43	0.30	0.73
30	Tyler Lockett	sea	45	555	2	820	$0.89	-0.93	-0.30	0.62
31	Kendall Wright	chi	59	614	1	929	$1.84	-0.70	-0.09	0.61
32	Chris Godwin	tam	34	525	1	715	$0.66	-0.98	-0.51	0.47
33	Danny Amendola	nwe	61	659	2	1004	$3.12	-0.41	0.05	0.46
34	DeVante Parker	mia	57	670	1	975	$2.97	-0.44	0.00	0.44
35	Albert Wilson	kan	42	554	3	824	$1.80	-0.71	-0.30	0.42
36	Antonio Brown	pit	101	1533	9	2218	$13.62	2.04	2.40	0.36
37	Terrance Williams	dal	53	568	0	833	$2.25	-0.61	-0.28	0.33
38	Golden Tate	det	92	1003	5	1563	$8.35	0.81	1.13	0.32
39	Jaron Brown	crd	31	477	4	712	$1.31	-0.83	-0.51	0.32
40	Marvin Jones	det	61	1101	9	1586	$8.60	0.87	1.18	0.31
41	Josh Doctson	was	35	502	6	797	$2.28	-0.60	-0.35	0.25
42	Seth Roberts	rai	43	455	1	690	$2.00	-0.67	-0.55	0.11
43	Will Fuller	htx	28	423	7	703	$2.31	-0.59	-0.53	0.07
44	Rishard Matthews	oti	53	795	4	1140	$6.33	0.34	0.32	-0.03
45	Eric Decker	oti	54	563	1	853	$4.00	-0.20	-0.24	-0.04
46	Chris Hogan	nwe	34	439	5	709	$2.97	-0.44	-0.52	-0.08
47	Robert Woods	ram	56	781	5	1161	$7.00	0.50	0.36	-0.14
48	Amari Cooper	rai	48	680	7	1060	$6.18	0.31	0.16	-0.15
49	Jeremy Maclin	rav	40	440	3	700	$3.50	-0.32	-0.54	-0.22
50	Michael Crabtree	rai	58	618	8	1068	$6.63	0.41	0.18	-0.24
51	Julio Jones	atl	88	1444	3	1944	$13.90	2.11	1.87	-0.24
52	Brandon LaFell	cin	52	548	3	868	$5.00	0.03	-0.21	-0.24
53	Mohamed Sanu	atl	67	703	5	1138	$7.40	0.59	0.31	-0.28
54	Taylor Gabriel	atl	33	378	1	563	$2.75	-0.49	-0.80	-0.31
55	Corey Coleman	cle	23	305	2	460	$2.65	-0.52	-1.00	-0.48
56	T.Y. Hilton	clt	57	966	4	1331	$10.00	1.20	0.68	-0.51
57	Mike Wallace	rav	52	748	4	1088	$8.00	0.73	0.21	-0.52
58	Odell Beckham	nyg	25	302	3	487	$3.31	-0.36	-0.95	-0.59
59	Jarius Wright	min	18	198	2	328	$2.16	-0.63	-1.25	-0.62
60	Torrey Smith	phi	36	430	2	650	$4.88	0.00	-0.63	-0.64
61	Travis Benjamin	sdg	34	567	4	817	$6.50	0.38	-0.31	-0.69
62	Cole Beasley	dal	36	314	4	574	$4.50	-0.08	-0.78	-0.70
63	Russell Shepard	car	17	202	1	307	$2.30	-0.60	-1.30	-0.70
64	Laquon Treadwell	min	20	200	0	300	$2.26	-0.61	-1.31	-0.70
65	Demaryius Thomas	den	83	949	5	1464	$12.03	1.67	0.94	-0.73
66	Corey Davis	oti	34	375	0	545	$4.62	-0.06	-0.84	-0.78
67	A.J. Green	cin	75	1078	8	1613	$13.50	2.01	1.23	-0.79
68	DeAndre Hopkins	htx	96	1378	13	2118	$18.00	3.06	2.21	-0.86
69	Alshon Jeffery	phi	57	789	9	1254	$10.85	1.40	0.54	-0.86
70	Pierre Garcon	sfo	40	500	0	700	$6.43	0.36	-0.54	-0.90
71	Larry Fitzgerald	crd	109	1156	6	1821	$15.85	2.56	1.63	-0.93
72	Kamar Aiken	clt	15	133	0	208	$2.60	-0.53	-1.49	-0.96
73	Allen Hurns	jax	39	484	2	719	$7.00	0.50	-0.50	-1.00
74	Breshad Perriman	rav	10	77	0	127	$2.37	-0.58	-1.64	-1.06
75	Cordarrelle Patterson	rai	31	309	0	464	$5.60	0.17	-0.99	-1.16
76	Harry Douglas	oti	1	8	0	13	$2.34	-0.59	-1.86	-1.28
77	Mike Williams	sdg	11	95	0	150	$3.59	-0.30	-1.60	-1.30
78	Brandon Marshall	nyg	18	154	0	244	$4.47	-0.09	-1.42	-1.33
79	Emmanuel Sanders	den	47	555	2	830	$9.54	1.09	-0.28	-1.37
80	Terrelle Pryor	was	20	240	1	360	$6.00	0.27	-1.19	-1.46
81	John Ross	cin	0	0	0	0	$3.11	-0.41	-1.89	-1.48
82	Dwayne Harris	nyg	0	0	0	0	$3.30	-0.36	-1.89	-1.52
83	Randall Cobb	gnb	66	653	4	1063	$12.66	1.82	0.17	-1.65
84	Jordy Nelson	gnb	53	482	6	867	$11.55	1.56	-0.21	-1.77
85	Kevin White	chi	2	6	0	16	$4.52	-0.08	-1.86	-1.78
86	DeSean Jackson	tam	50	668	3	978	$12.50	1.78	0.00	-1.78
87	Markus Wheaton	chi	3	46	0	61	$5.25	0.09	-1.77	-1.86
88	Dez Bryant	dal	69	839	6	1304	$17.00	2.83	0.63	-2.20
89	Tavon Austin	ram	14	61	0	131	$14.98	2.36	-1.64	-3.99

What stands out to you?

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