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There were 66 wide receivers with salary cap hits of at least $2,000,000 in 2017, based on data from Over The Cap. There were 67 wide receivers in 2017 who had at least 700 Adjusted Catch Yards, which is receiving yards with a 20-yard bonus for touchdowns and a 5-yard bonus for catches (for reference, Jeremy Maclin with a 40-440-3 line is the cutoff here at exactly 700 ACY). In other words, I wanted to set a bar for both salary cap hits and production that was pretty low, but not so low that the data would be overpopulated with fringe players.

There were 89 wide receivers who had either cap hits of $2M or 700 ACY in 2017. The correlation coefficient between the two variables was 0.31, indicating a moderately positive correlation but nothing more. The graph below shows those wide receivers with salary cap dollars (in millions) on the Y-Axis, and Adjusted Catch Yards on the X-Axis. The most valuable receivers would be on the bottom right (low cap hit, high production) while the least valuable would be on the upper left (high cap hit, low production).

The five at the bottom right are Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Jarvis Landry, Adam Thielen, and Brandin Cooks — all but Thielen had a cap hit below $2M, with Thielen being the dot at $4M but with 1,812 ACY.

On the other side, in a world of his own, is Tavon Austin. With a cap hit of nearly $15M, Austin was the fourth most expensive wide receiver in 2017. He finished the season with just 14 receptions for 61 yards and zero touchdowns.

Here’s another way to think of it. For this group of 89 wide receivers, the average salary was $4.86M, with a standard deviation of $4.29M. So Thomas, with a cap hit of $1.16M, was 0.86 standard deviations below average in terms of salary. The average ACY was 977 with a standard deviation of 517. So Thomas, with 1,865 ACY, was 1.72 standard deviations above average. So Thomas had a Z-Score of -0.86 for salary cap value and a Z-score of +1.72 for production. If we subtract cap hit from production, Thomas has a value of +2.58, the best in the NFL last year. Austin, with Z-Scores of +2.36 for salary cap and -1.64 for production, is at -3.99 in terms of value, by far the worst in the NFL.

RkWide ReceiverTeamRecYardTDACYCap (Mill)Z-Score SalZ-Score ACYValue
1Michael Thomasnor104124551865$1.16-0.861.722.58
2Tyreek Hillkan75118371698$0.59-1.001.392.39
3Jarvis Landrymia11298791727$1.11-0.881.452.33
4Adam Thielenmin91127741812$3.75-0.261.611.87
5Brandin Cooksnwe65108271547$1.56-0.771.101.87
6Robby Andersonnyj6394171396$0.54-1.010.811.82
7JuJu Smith-Schusterpit5891771347$0.74-0.960.721.68
8Stefon Diggsmin6484981329$0.67-0.980.681.66
9Cooper Kuppram6286951279$0.70-0.970.581.55
10Devin Funchesscar6384081315$1.51-0.780.651.44
11Jamison Crowderwas6678931179$0.75-0.960.391.35
12Doug Baldwinsea7599181526$4.42-0.101.061.16
13Keenan Allensdg102139362023$8.650.882.021.14
14Jermaine Kearsenyj6581051235$2.20-0.620.501.12
15Keelan Colejax4274831018$0.47-1.020.081.10
16Tyrell Williamssdg4372841023$0.62-0.990.091.08
17Nelson Agholorphi6276881238$2.56-0.540.501.04
18Sterling Shepardnyg5973121066$1.35-0.820.170.99
19Mike Evanstam71100151456$4.61-0.060.930.98
20Marquise Goodwinsfo5696221282$3.25-0.380.590.97
21Adam Humphriestam616311956$0.62-0.99-0.040.95
22Davante Adamsgnb74885101455$4.850.000.920.93
23Sammy Watkinsram395938948$0.69-0.97-0.060.92
24Paul Richardsonsea4470361043$1.50-0.780.130.91
25Marqise Leejax5670231042$1.65-0.750.130.88
26Martavis Bryantpit506033913$0.72-0.97-0.120.84
27Kenny Stillsmia5884761257$3.75-0.260.540.80
28Ryan Grantwas455734878$0.74-0.96-0.190.77
29Ted Ginnnor5378741132$3.00-0.430.300.73
30Tyler Lockettsea455552820$0.89-0.93-0.300.62
31Kendall Wrightchi596141929$1.84-0.70-0.090.61
32Chris Godwintam345251715$0.66-0.98-0.510.47
33Danny Amendolanwe6165921004$3.12-0.410.050.46
34DeVante Parkermia576701975$2.97-0.440.000.44
35Albert Wilsonkan425543824$1.80-0.71-0.300.42
36Antonio Brownpit101153392218$13.622.042.400.36
37Terrance Williamsdal535680833$2.25-0.61-0.280.33
38Golden Tatedet92100351563$8.350.811.130.32
39Jaron Browncrd314774712$1.31-0.83-0.510.32
40Marvin Jonesdet61110191586$8.600.871.180.31
41Josh Doctsonwas355026797$2.28-0.60-0.350.25
42Seth Robertsrai434551690$2.00-0.67-0.550.11
43Will Fullerhtx284237703$2.31-0.59-0.530.07
44Rishard Matthewsoti5379541140$6.330.340.32-0.03
45Eric Deckeroti545631853$4.00-0.20-0.24-0.04
46Chris Hogannwe344395709$2.97-0.44-0.52-0.08
47Robert Woodsram5678151161$7.000.500.36-0.14
48Amari Cooperrai4868071060$6.180.310.16-0.15
49Jeremy Maclinrav404403700$3.50-0.32-0.54-0.22
50Michael Crabtreerai5861881068$6.630.410.18-0.24
51Julio Jonesatl88144431944$13.902.111.87-0.24
52Brandon LaFellcin525483868$5.000.03-0.21-0.24
53Mohamed Sanuatl6770351138$7.400.590.31-0.28
54Taylor Gabrielatl333781563$2.75-0.49-0.80-0.31
55Corey Colemancle233052460$2.65-0.52-1.00-0.48
56T.Y. Hiltonclt5796641331$10.001.200.68-0.51
57Mike Wallacerav5274841088$8.000.730.21-0.52
58Odell Beckhamnyg253023487$3.31-0.36-0.95-0.59
59Jarius Wrightmin181982328$2.16-0.63-1.25-0.62
60Torrey Smithphi364302650$4.880.00-0.63-0.64
61Travis Benjaminsdg345674817$6.500.38-0.31-0.69
62Cole Beasleydal363144574$4.50-0.08-0.78-0.70
63Russell Shepardcar172021307$2.30-0.60-1.30-0.70
64Laquon Treadwellmin202000300$2.26-0.61-1.31-0.70
65Demaryius Thomasden8394951464$12.031.670.94-0.73
66Corey Davisoti343750545$4.62-0.06-0.84-0.78
67A.J. Greencin75107881613$13.502.011.23-0.79
68DeAndre Hopkinshtx961378132118$18.003.062.21-0.86
69Alshon Jefferyphi5778991254$10.851.400.54-0.86
70Pierre Garconsfo405000700$6.430.36-0.54-0.90
71Larry Fitzgeraldcrd109115661821$15.852.561.63-0.93
72Kamar Aikenclt151330208$2.60-0.53-1.49-0.96
73Allen Hurnsjax394842719$7.000.50-0.50-1.00
74Breshad Perrimanrav10770127$2.37-0.58-1.64-1.06
75Cordarrelle Pattersonrai313090464$5.600.17-0.99-1.16
76Harry Douglasoti18013$2.34-0.59-1.86-1.28
77Mike Williamssdg11950150$3.59-0.30-1.60-1.30
78Brandon Marshallnyg181540244$4.47-0.09-1.42-1.33
79Emmanuel Sandersden475552830$9.541.09-0.28-1.37
80Terrelle Pryorwas202401360$6.000.27-1.19-1.46
81John Rosscin0000$3.11-0.41-1.89-1.48
82Dwayne Harrisnyg0000$3.30-0.36-1.89-1.52
83Randall Cobbgnb6665341063$12.661.820.17-1.65
84Jordy Nelsongnb534826867$11.551.56-0.21-1.77
85Kevin Whitechi26016$4.52-0.08-1.86-1.78
86DeSean Jacksontam506683978$12.501.780.00-1.78
87Markus Wheatonchi346061$5.250.09-1.77-1.86
88Dez Bryantdal6983961304$17.002.830.63-2.20
89Tavon Austinram14610131$14.982.36-1.64-3.99

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