Wide Receivers and Weighted Team Pass Attempts

by Chase Stuart on April 10, 2014

in Receiving, Statgeekery

Megatron at his best.

In his seven-year career, Calvin Johnson has already recorded 9,328 receiving yards. And for those curious about these sorts of things, he’s the career leader in receiving yards per game at 88.0, too. But Johnson has also benefited greatly from playing on teams that have thrown a weighted average of 635 pass attempts per season.

What is a weighted average of team pass attempts? I’m defining it as an average of pass attempts per season weighted by the number of receiving yards by that player. Why use that instead of a simple average? When thinking about whether a receiver played for a run-heavy or pass-happy team, we tend to think of that receiver during his peak years. If he caught 10 passes for 150 yards as a rookie on a very pass-happy team, that should not be given the same weight as the number of pass attempts his team produced in his best season. For example, here is how I derived the 635 attempt number for Megatron.

Twenty-one percent of his career receiving yards came in 2012, when Detroit passed 740 times (excluding sacks). Therefore, 21% of his team pass attempts average comes from that season, while 18% comes from his 2011 season, 16% from his 2013 season, and so on. In the table below, the far right column shows how we get to that 635 figure: by multiplying in each season the percentage of career receiving yards recorded by him in that season by Detroit’s Team Pass Attempts.

Yr	RecYd	TPA	Perc	TM * %
2013	1492	634	16%	101.4
2012	1964	740	21.1%	155.8
2011	1681	666	18%	120
2010	1120	633	12%	76
2009	984	585	10.5%	61.7
2008	1331	509	14.3%	72.6
2007	756	587	8.1%	47.6
Total	9328	4354	100%	635.2

There are 121 players with 7,000 career receiving yards. Unsurprisingly, Johnson has the highest weighted average number of team pass attempts, which must be recognized when fawning over his great raw totals. Marques Colston is just a hair behind Johnson, but no other player has an average of 600+ team pass attempts.

The table below contains data for all 121 players (by default, the table displays only the top 25, but you can change that). Here’s how to read it, starting with the GOAT: Jerry Rice ranks first in career receiving yards, and he played from 1985 to 2004. Rice played in 303 games, gained 22,895 receiving yards, and his teams threw a weighted average of 547 passes per season. Among these 121 players, that rank Rice as playing for the 25th highest or most pass-happy team. Rice also averaged 76 receiving yards per game, which ranks 5th among this group.

Rk	Receiver	First Yr	Last Year	G	Yards	TmPA	TPA Rk	Yd/G	Yd/G Rk
1	Jerry Rice	1985	2004	303	22895	547	25	76	5
2	Terrell Owens	1996	2010	219	15934	537	40	73	10
3	Randy Moss	1998	2012	218	15292	541	32	70	14
4	Isaac Bruce	1994	2009	223	15208	569	10	68	19
5	Tony Gonzalez	1997	2013	270	15127	550	20	56	57
6	Tim Brown	1988	2004	255	14934	514	59	59	43
7	Marvin Harrison	1996	2008	190	14580	556	15	77	4
8	James Lofton	1978	1993	233	14004	482	83	60	36
9	Cris Carter	1987	2002	234	13899	550	19	59	41
10	Henry Ellard	1983	1998	228	13777	496	79	60	34
11	Reggie Wayne	2001	2013	196	13566	578	7	69	15
12	Torry Holt	1999	2009	173	13382	578	6	77	3
13	Andre Reed	1985	2000	234	13198	497	78	56	50
14	Steve Largent	1976	1989	200	13089	481	84	65	24
15	Irving Fryar	1984	2000	255	12785	539	36	50	85
16	Art Monk	1980	1995	224	12721	506	71	57	47
17	Andre Johnson	2003	2013	154	12661	536	43	82	2
18	Jimmy Smith	1992	2005	178	12287	513	60	69	16
19	Steve Smith	2001	2013	182	12197	479	85	67	20
20	Charlie Joiner	1969	1986	239	12146	514	57	51	83
21	Hines Ward	1998	2011	217	12083	484	82	56	60
22	Derrick Mason	1997	2011	230	12061	514	58	52	80
23	Michael Irvin	1988	1999	159	11904	494	80	75	7
24	Don Maynard	1958	1973	186	11834	453	90	64	27
25	Muhsin Muhammad	1996	2009	202	11438	509	69	57	49
26	Rod Smith	1995	2006	183	11389	518	55	62	30
27	Keenan McCardell	1992	2007	209	11373	530	47	54	71
28	Larry Fitzgerald	2004	2013	156	11367	590	4	73	9
29	Anquan Boldin	2003	2013	156	11344	558	13	73	11
30	Chad Johnson	2001	2011	166	11059	545	26	67	22
31	Joey Galloway	1995	2010	198	10950	507	70	55	63
32	Gary Clark	1985	1995	167	10856	525	50	65	25
33	Stanley Morgan	1977	1990	196	10716	448	91	55	69
34	Keyshawn Johnson	1996	2006	167	10571	539	35	63	28
35	Harold Jackson	1968	1983	208	10372	388	110	50	89
36	Lance Alworth	1962	1972	136	10266	422	96	75	6
37	Andre Rison	1989	2000	186	10205	538	39	55	68
38	Santana Moss	2001	2013	187	10167	513	62	54	72
39	Donald Driver	1999	2012	205	10137	577	8	49	92
40	Shannon Sharpe	1990	2003	204	10060	535	45	49	94
41	Eric Moulds	1996	2007	186	9995	513	61	54	75
42	Drew Hill	1979	1993	211	9831	525	51	47	106
43	Jason Witten	2003	2013	175	9799	555	17	56	58
44	Amani Toomer	1996	2008	190	9497	549	22	50	88
45	Roddy White	2005	2013	141	9436	552	18	67	21
46	Rob Moore	1990	1999	153	9368	544	28	61	31
47	Wes Welker	2004	2013	153	9358	592	3	61	32
48	Calvin Johnson	2007	2013	106	9328	635	1	88	1
49	Raymond Berry	1955	1967	154	9275	379	112	60	35
50	Antonio Gates	2003	2013	163	9193	510	67	56	51
51	Herman Moore	1991	2002	146	9174	509	68	63	29
52	Anthony Miller	1988	1997	155	9148	539	37	59	42
53	Charley Taylor	1964	1977	165	9110	414	100	55	66
54	Tony Martin	1990	2001	177	9065	532	46	51	81
55	Brandon Marshall	2006	2013	123	9050	536	44	74	8
56	Harold Carmichael	1971	1984	182	8985	427	94	49	93
57	Mark Clayton	1983	1993	158	8974	586	5	57	46
58	Fred Biletnikoff	1965	1978	190	8974	398	105	47	102
59	Wes Chandler	1978	1988	150	8966	544	29	60	38
60	Roy Green	1979	1992	190	8965	501	76	47	103
61	Ricky Proehl	1990	2006	244	8878	527	49	36	120
62	Mark Duper	1982	1992	146	8869	570	9	61	33
63	Terry Glenn	1996	2007	137	8823	545	27	64	26
64	Terance Mathis	1990	2002	206	8809	530	48	43	113
65	Mark Carrier	1987	1998	177	8763	513	63	50	91
66	Joe Horn	1996	2007	163	8744	538	38	54	76
67	John Stallworth	1974	1987	165	8723	429	93	53	79
68	Johnnie Morton	1994	2005	182	8719	540	34	48	98
69	Cliff Branch	1972	1985	183	8685	409	102	47	100
70	Laveranues Coles	2000	2009	153	8609	503	72	56	52
71	Paul Warfield	1964	1977	157	8565	332	118	55	70
72	Plaxico Burress	2000	2012	147	8499	512	66	58	45
73	Billy Howton	1952	1963	142	8459	358	115	60	39
74	Tommy McDonald	1957	1968	152	8410	397	106	55	62
75	Eddie Kennison	1996	2008	179	8345	516	56	47	105
76	Marques Colston	2006	2013	117	8337	633	2	71	13
77	Wesley Walker	1977	1989	154	8306	459	89	54	73
78	Carroll Dale	1960	1973	189	8277	331	119	44	112
79	Curtis Conway	1993	2004	167	8230	541	33	49	95
80	Ernest Givins	1986	1995	147	8215	555	16	56	59
81	Jeff Graham	1991	2001	160	8172	543	30	51	82
82	Eric Martin	1985	1994	153	8161	468	88	53	77
83	Sterling Sharpe	1988	1994	112	8134	557	14	73	12
84	Webster Slaughter	1986	1998	162	8111	548	24	50	86
85	Haven Moses	1968	1981	199	8091	406	103	41	116
86	Art Powell	1959	1968	117	8046	470	87	69	18
87	Bill Brooks	1986	1996	169	8001	501	75	47	101
88	Don Hutson	1935	1945	116	7991	256	121	69	17
89	Tony Hill	1977	1986	141	7988	498	77	57	48
90	Ozzie Newsome	1978	1990	198	7980	513	64	40	117
91	Bobby Mitchell	1958	1968	148	7954	411	101	54	74
92	Jackie Smith	1963	1978	210	7918	406	104	38	119
93	Jimmy Orr	1958	1970	149	7914	379	113	53	78
94	Drew Pearson	1973	1983	156	7822	416	99	50	84
95	Bobby Engram	1996	2009	176	7751	548	23	44	111
96	Anthony Carter	1985	1995	140	7733	503	73	55	65
97	Chris Chambers	2001	2010	153	7648	512	65	50	87
98	Brian Blades	1988	1998	156	7620	501	74	49	96
99	Nat Moore	1974	1986	183	7546	423	95	41	115
100	Roy Jefferson	1965	1976	162	7539	393	107	47	107
101	Gary Garrison	1966	1977	134	7538	416	98	56	53
102	Ed McCaffrey	1991	2003	185	7422	524	52	40	118
103	Bob Hayes	1965	1975	132	7414	374	114	56	55
104	Pete Retzlaff	1956	1966	132	7412	388	109	56	56
105	Wayne Chrebet	1995	2005	152	7365	543	31	48	97
106	Vincent Jackson	2005	2013	123	7362	524	53	60	37
107	Greg Jennings	2006	2013	111	7341	558	12	66	23
108	Otis Taylor	1965	1975	130	7306	353	116	56	54
109	Boyd Dowler	1959	1971	162	7270	315	120	45	109
110	Antonio Freeman	1995	2003	132	7251	559	11	55	67
111	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	2001	2011	146	7237	550	21	50	90
112	Lionel Taylor	1959	1968	121	7195	492	81	59	40
113	Darrell Jackson	2000	2008	123	7132	518	54	58	44
114	Carl Pickens	1992	2000	129	7129	537	42	55	64
115	Ken Burrough	1970	1981	156	7102	388	111	46	108
116	Isaac Curtis	1973	1984	167	7101	421	97	43	114
117	Reggie Rucker	1970	1981	159	7065	447	92	44	110
118	John Gilliam	1967	1977	151	7056	392	108	47	104
119	Elroy Hirsch	1946	1957	127	7029	349	117	55	61
120	Shawn Jefferson	1991	2003	195	7023	537	41	36	121
121	Pat Tilley	1976	1986	147	7005	474	86	48	99

Did you know: Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin have each played in 156 games. And they’ve produced nearly identical receiving numbers, with Fitzgerald at 11,367 yards and Boldin at 11,344 yards. But Boldin’s teams have averaged 558 pass attempts, compared to 590 for Fitzgerald.

We all know I am in love with Smitty, but here’s some more Steve Smith HOF ammunition. Smith ranks 20th in career receiving yards, but everyone ahead of him played on teams that averaged more (weighted) pass attempts per season. Only three receivers gained more receiving yards per game than Smith and played on teams with fewer team pass attempts: Don Hutson, Lance Alworth, and Art Powell. That’s two of the greatest wide receivers ever and a receiver whose numbers need a significant AFL adjustment. And all of them played in an era of 12- or 14-game seasons, so comparing yards per game and attempts per season is a little clunky here, too (Powell would drop out if we looked at pass attempts per team game, leaving just Alworth and Hutson).

One more note on Smith: it’s really not appropriate to compare his numbers to his peers, because Smith played for Panthers teams stuck in the ’70s and ’80s. Consider: Smith and Steve Largent have nearly identical numbers: Largent’s teams averaged 481 passes, Smith’s 479, while Largent averaged 65 yards per game, Smith 67.

Another Football Perspective favorite is Jimmy Smith, who is just a slightly less-exaggerated version of Smith. The Jaguars had a weighted average of 513 pass attempts per season during Smith’s career, and he averaged 69 receiving yards per game. The only players with a higher per-game output and fewer team pass attempts: Hutson, Alworth, Powell, and Michael Irvin.

Irvin, of course, is another favorite going back to the days of Doug Drinen. Irvin is “only” 23rd in career receiving yards, which leads some to think he’s a Hall of Famer only because he was on dominant Cowboys teams that won three Super Bowls. But Irvin ranks 7th in yards per game, which reflects his shorter career and lack of stat-padding seasons that most receivers have at the tail ends of their careers. Irvin (74.8 RecYd/G) and Alworth (75.5) are the only two receivers with over 70 yards per game who played on teams that averaged under 500 attempts. The next closest players are Hutson and Powell, with Steve Smith, Largent, and Don Maynard rounding out the group. Irvin played in the ’90s, but you wouldn’t know that by examining this list.

One last Football Perspective regular is Paul Warfield. The Browns and Dolphins star ranks 4th from the bottom in team pass attempts, which isn’t too surprising. He remains one of the more complicated receivers to analyze in NFL history.

Hutson’s place in wide receiver Mount Rushmore is forever reserved, and we all know about Alworth and Don Maynard, too (at least, I hope we do). But this post puts Billy Howton, Raymond Berry, and Otis Taylor in very good lights, too

One reason I sided with Tim Brown over Cris Carter for the HOF was that Carter benefited from playing in a more pass-happy offense. As you can see, Carter’s teams passed an average of 550 times compared to just 514 for Brown. Andre Reed’s teams averaged 497 pass attempts, which would would be another argument for him if the rest of his resume wasn’t so weak.

Let’s close with a more HOF-worthy Andre: Andre Johnson. Johnson is second in career receiving yards per game, but he’s already 17th on the career receiving yards list. Among players in the top 20 in the receiving yards list, only six — Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, both Smiths, Torry Holt, and Johnson — have played in fewer than 200 games. Wayne, Harrison, and Holt played on significantly more pass-happy teams than Johnson, and Johnson holds a considerable edge (for now) over both Smiths in per-game production. If nothing else, Johnson seems like the prime candidate to carry on the Smith-Smith torch of under-appreciated wide receivers (with common names).

Tagged as: Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Jerry Rice, Jimmy Smith, Michael Irvin, Paul Warfield, Steve Smith, WR Project, WR Ranking Systems

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